Rescuing Peace in the Middle East

George Bush's policies have increased the problems for peace the Middle East. But other nations have stepped up to keep the peace process alive until a more responsible U.S. administration returns the United States to its indispensable mediating role, says Patrick Seale.

The four leaders who met in Damascus this past week have this in common: They recognize the extreme danger of the present situation in the region, and the unwelcome fact that U.S. President George W. Bush, far from acting to resolve conflicts, is largely responsible for the prevailing tensions.

The mini-summit in the Syrian capital brought together President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani of Qatar, and their host, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

These four leaders are not seeking to expel the United States from Middle East peacemaking. On the contrary, they concede that a U.S. role will ultimately be indispensable. But they feel the urgent need to step into the vacuum created by American failure and wrong-headedness -- a vacuum likely to last well into 2009 -- until the next U.S. President gets into his stride and Israel resolves its current political turmoil.

Among the many potential flashpoints in the region, which might explode into violent conflict at any moment, are Israel's unresolved conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and with Hizbullah in Lebanon, and the unsettled state of Iraq. Overhanging the entire region is the threat of a clash between Iran on the one hand and Israel and/or the United States on the other. It is obvious that any such clash would be immensely damaging to the security and prosperity of the entire Gulf region.

Fear about the regional fall-out from these many conflicts continues to inspire Qatar's highly-active diplomacy. This small but rich Gulf emirate has won a brilliant reputation as a peacemaker. It has successfully mediated between Lebanon's warring factions; it aspires to play a similar role in Yemen; and it has sought to ease tensions between Iran and the Arab Gulf. Behind the scenes, it has also tried to encourage a dialogue between Israel and the Arabs.

The four leaders meeting in Damascus are determined to keep current talks going between conflicting parties and, more ambitiously, to formulate a credible regional peace agenda, which the next U.S. President and the next Israeli Prime Minister will not be able to ignore.

Sarkozy -- a self-declared "friend of Israel"-- is concerned that time for a regional settlement is running out, in part at least because of Israel's relentless expansion into Palestinian territory and Iran's nuclear programme.

According to sources close to him, he is convinced that the creation of a Palestinian state, a Syrian-Israeli peace treaty and a deal with Tehran over its nuclear ambitions are the only guarantees of Israel's long-term security. Without progress on all three fronts, Israel would, he believes, be condemned to live in a hostile environment for the foreseeable future and have to fight endless wars. Its very existence would then be in danger.

Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan, on good terms with both Israel and Syria, is well-placed to host the Syrian-Israeli talks which have been taking place in Ankara -- so far only indirect talks, but likely to progress to direct negotiations once agreement is reached on the basic principles of a peace settlement, and once a new American president, committed to peace, takes office...