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Glacier Melt
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- Public Topic: Everyone is invited to contribute to Glacier Melt
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Scientists unveiled Sunday the first direct evidence that massive floods deep below Antarctica's ice cover are accelerating the flow of glaciers into the sea. How quickly these huge bodies of ice slide off the Antarctic and Greenland land masses into the ocean help determine the speed at which sea levels rise.
The stakes are enormous: an increase measured in tens of centimetres (inches) could wreak havoc for hundreds of millions of people living in low-lying deltas and island nations around the world.
Researchers discovered only recently that inaccessible subglacial lakes in Antarctica periodically shed huge quantities of water.
Data collected by a satellite launched in 2003 -- the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite, or ICESat -- revealed a complex network of subglacial plumbing in which water periodically cascades from one hidden reservoir to another.
But the new study, published online in the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first to measure the potential impact of this invisible flooding on sea-bound glaciers.
A trio of scientists led by Leigh Stearns of the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine matched ICESat data against a nearly 50-year record of how fast the Byrd Glacier in East Antarctica has moved toward the sea.
They discovered that during the same 14-month period that 1.7 cubic kilometres (0.4 cubic miles) of water cascaded through subglacial waterways, the 75-kilometre (45-mile) long glacier downstream pick up speed, moving about 10 percent faster.
"Our findings provide direct evidence that an active lake drainage system can cause large and rapid changes in glacier dynamics," the researchers concluded.
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Two forces -- both driven by global warming -- cause sea levels to rise. One is thermal expansion of sea water.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned last year that thermal expansion will push sea levels up 18 to 59 centimetres (7.2 to 23.2 inches) by 2100, enough to wipe out several small island nations and severely disrupt low-lying mega deltas in Asia and Africa.
But the report failed to take into account the impact of the second force: additional water from melting sources of ice.
The ice sheet that sits atop Greenland, for example, contains enough water to raise world ocean levels by seven metres (23 feet).
Even the gloomiest global warming predictions do not include such a scenario.
But recent studies suggest that runoff from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could drive sea levels higher than once thought, one reason the IPCC decided to remove the upward bracket from its forecast.Scientists unveiled Sunday the first direct evidence that massive floods deep below Antarctica's ice cover are... more
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The glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, a large number of them may disappear by 2035 because of climate change, warn Indian and foreign environmentalists and geologists.
The Himalayas have the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar caps. That is why, they are called the “Water Towers of Asia.”
One may believe it or not but the climate change is real and happening now and it is causing a serious impact on fragile ecosystems like glaciers. Seventy per cent of the world’s freshwater is frozen in glaciers. Glacier melt buffers other ecosystems against climate variability. Very often, it provides the only source of water for humans and the biodiversity during dry seasons.
The Himalayan glaciers feed seven of Asia’s great rivers: the Ganga, Indus, Barahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huang Ho. About 70 per cent of glaciers are retreating at a startling rate in the Himalayas due to climate change.
The Glacial melt has started affecting freshwater flows with dramatic adverse effects on the biodiversity, and people and livelihoods, with a possible long-term implication on regional food security.The glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, a large... more
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A NASA-led research team has used satellite data to make the most precise measurements to date of changes in the mass of mountain glaciers in the Gulf of Alaska, a region expected to be a significant contributor to global sea level rise over the next 50-100 years.
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Geophysicist Scott Luthcke of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and colleagues knew from well-documented research that changes in the cryosphere glaciers, ice caps, and other parts of the globe covered year-round by ice -- are a key source of most global sea level rise.
Melting ice will also bring changes to freshwater resources and wildlife habitat. Knowing that such ice-covered areas are difficult to observe consistently, the team worked to develop a satellite-based method that could accurately quantify glacial mass changes across seasons and years, and even discern whether individual glacier regions are growing or shrinking.
The study's authors found that the annual ice mass lost from glaciers in the Gulf of Alaska has been 84 gigatons annually, about five times the average annual flow of the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon and equal to the entire amount of water in the Chesapeake Bay.
"The Gulf of Alaska region is 20 times smaller than the ice-covered area of Greenland, yet it contributes nearly half as much freshwater melt as Greenland and accounts for about 15 percent of present-day global sea level rise stemming from melting ice," said Luthcke, lead author of the study which will appear this week in the Journal of Glaciology. "Considering that the Gulf of Alaska makes such a disproportionate contribution, it is vital that we know more about the nature of glacial change there."
Luthcke and colleagues found a way to remotely measure the "mass balance" of a glacier; that is, the net annual difference between ice accumulation and ice loss. Past measurements of glacial mass balance in remote mountain ranges have been sparse or imprecise. Ground-based sensors can provide long-term data, but such data points are scattered due to the inaccessibility of many remote mountain ranges. Altimeters aboard aircraft can measure changes in the height of glaciers, but the sampling is sporadic because flights are relatively infrequent.
Glaciers in the coastal environments on the edge of the Arctic or Antarctic shed and gain mass rapidly, a high mass turnover that is particularly sensitive to climate change. Warming seas can accelerate the motion of tidewater glaciers, and melt water on glacial surfaces can flow to the floors of glaciers and serve as a lubricant as the ice slides toward the sea. The subsequent addition of freshwater to the ocean contributes to one of two sources of global sea level rise; "eustatic" rise resulting from melted ice in the form of freshwater, with the other source set off by "thermal expansion," sea level rise that occurs due to warming ocean temperatures.
The Goddard-led research team developed a new data analysis technique for NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. GRACE is made up of twin satellites that orbit Earth about 137 miles apart and 300 miles above Earth's surface. The positions of the two satellites change in response to variations in Earth's gravity field, which is stronger or weaker depending on the land or ice mass that they are flying over. Microwave ranging systems measure the distance between the two satellites down to the width of a human hair, so by measuring the change in the distance between the satellites over time, researchers can essentially "weigh" the changes in Gulf of Alaska glaciers.
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More precise methods of determining total ice accumulation and loss in this and other areas are now essential in crafting proper legislation to deal with this crisis.A NASA-led research team has used satellite data to make the most precise measurements to date of changes in the mass of mountain... more
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It's official - humans are to blame for melting the ice caps as natural forces are not powerful enough to do it alone, a new experiment has revealed...
(I know what you're thinking: duh! But this study is hugely important. Scientists have suspected with strong reason that human activity is responsible for global warming on all of the continents except Antarctica, which had not been proven without a doubt. This study puts ANY and ALL doubts to rest. Natural forces are NOT powerful enough to change the climate the way it is changing.)It's official - humans are to blame for melting the ice caps as natural forces are not powerful enough to do it alone, a new... more
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'Extreme weather events' such as the hot summer of 2003, which caused an extra 35,000 deaths across southern Europe from heat stress and poor air quality, will happen more frequently.
Britain and the North Sea area will be hit more often by violent cyclones and the predicted rise in sea level will double to more than a metre, putting vast coastal areas at risk from flooding.
The bleak report from WWF - formerly the World Wildlife Fund - also predicts crops failures and the collapse of eco systems on both land and sea.
And it calls on the EU to set an example to the rest of the world by agreeing a package of challenging targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions to tackle the consequences of climate change and to keep any increase in global temperatures below 2C.
The agency says that the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - a study of global warming by 4,000 scientists from more than 150 countries which alerted the world to the possible consequences of global warming - is now out of date.
WWF's report, Climate Change: Faster, stronger, sooner, has updated all the scientific data and concluded that global warming is accelerating far beyond the IPCC's forecasts.
As an example it says the first 'tipping point' may have already been reached in the Arctic, where sea ice is disappearing up to 30 years ahead of IPCC predictions and may be gone completely within five years - something that hasn't occurred for a million years.
It could result in rapid and abrupt climate change rather than the gradual changes forecast by the IPCC.
The findings include:
* Global sea level rise could more than double from the IPCC's estimate of 0.59m by the end of the century.
* Natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, are losing their ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere faster than expected.
* Rising temperatures have already led to a major reduction in food crops resulting in losses of 40m tonnes of grain per year.
* Marine ecosystems in the North and Baltic Sea are being exposed to the warmest temperatures measured since records began.
* The number and intensity of extreme cyclones over the UK and North Sea are projected to increase, leading to increased wind speeds and storm-related losses over Western and Central Europe.
The report was issued to coincide with a meeting of EU Environment Ministers today to discuss new laws aimed at tackling climate change. Some countries, including Italy and Poland, have already rejected proposals for higher cuts in emissions claiming they are unaffordable and unrealistic when many countries are facing recession.
The UK is the only country so far to commit to a legally binding 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050 which the Government claims can be achieved by a switch to renewable energy sources - such as wind and wave - combined with a new generation of nuclear power stations.
In the report WWF urges the EU to commit to a reduction target of at least 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 without relying on offsetting overseas and to provide financial support so developing countries can cut their own emissions and prepare for unavoidable impacts of climate change.
WWF-UK's Head of Climate Change, Dr. Keith Allott, said: "Climate change is a major challenge to the future of mankind and the environment, and this sobering overview highlights just how critical it is that EU environment ministers, who are meeting today to discuss EU legislation to tackle climate change, commit to a strong climate and energy package, in order to ensure a low carbon future.
'Extreme weather events' such as the hot summer of 2003, which caused an extra 35,000 deaths across southern Europe from... more
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The continuing loss of sea ice has pushed the air temperature in the Arctic to a record high above normal, scientists have revealed.
Less summer ice - which deflects solar radiation - has resulted in a rise in both the ocean and atmospheric temperature.
A boat skims through melting ice on the west coast of Greenland
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says autumn air temperatures in the region are at a record 5ºC (9ºF) above average.
The annual NOAA report, which monitors climate change, said there has been a near-record loss of summer sea ice, though not as much as last year which was the warmest on record for the Arctic, continuing a trend that began in the mid-1960s.
They also report a loss of surface ice in Greenland.
Increased temperatures have an impact on both land and marine creatures and are likely to result in even less ice next year, the report says.
James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and a lead author of the report, said: "Changes in the Arctic show a domino effect from multiple causes more clearly than in other regions.
advertisement"It's a sensitive system and often reflects changes in relatively fast and dramatic ways."
In 2006 the NOAA's Climate Program Office set up the Arctic Report Card as a means of monitoring changes in the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land and Greenland.
This year three of the six areas - atmosphere, sea ice, and Greenland - are coded red indicating that the changes are strongly attributed to warming. Biology, ocean and land are coded yellow, indicating mixed signals. In 2007 there were two red areas, atmosphere and sea ice, and four coded yellow.
The report's chief editor Jackie Richter-Menge of the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, said: "The information combines to tell a story of widespread and, in some cases, dramatic effects of an overall warming of the Arctic system."
Researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, part of the University of Colorado, reported last month that Arctic sea ice melted to its second-lowest level this summer. They said it is now 34 per cent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000 but nine per cent above the record low set in 2007.
Professor Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University and head of the Polar Physics Group, said the air temperature on the Arctic coastline would normally be 0ºC but this year and last year a larger area of water - where summer ice had disappeared - had led to a rise.
"This temperature anomaly has also extended 1,000 kilometres inland towards the coasts of Alaska and Siberia and is causing the permafrost to melt and methane stored in it to leak," he said.
"The warmer temperatures will also take longer to dissipate, the autumn freeze will take longer, meaning thinner ice. There is always a fluctuation in the thickness of the ice year on year and the loss this year wasn't as extreme as last year - but it was almost.
"We have got to a tipping point where the breakdown of ice will lead to it disappearing altogether in the summer."
The continuing loss of sea ice has pushed the air temperature in the Arctic to a record high above normal, scientists have... more
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The global economy is losing more money from the disappearance of forests than through the current banking crisis, according to an EU-commissioned study.
It puts the annual cost of forest loss at between $2 trillion and $5 trillion.
The figure comes from adding the value of the various services that forests perform, such as providing clean water and absorbing carbon dioxide.
The study, headed by a Deutsche Bank economist, parallels the Stern Review into the economics of climate change.
It has been discussed during many sessions here at the World Conservation Congress.
Some conservationists see it as a new way of persuading policymakers to fund nature protection rather than allowing the decline in ecosystems and species, highlighted in the release on Monday of the Red List of Threatened Species, to continue.
Capital losses
Speaking to BBC News on the fringes of the congress, study leader Pavan Sukhdev emphasised that the cost of natural decline dwarfs losses on the financial markets.
"It's not only greater but it's also continuous, it's been happening every year, year after year," he told BBC News.
"So whereas Wall Street by various calculations has to date lost, within the financial sector, $1-$1.5 trillion, the reality is that at today's rate we are losing natural capital at least between $2-$5 trillion every year."
The review that Mr Sukhdev leads, The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (Teeb), was initiated by Germany under its recent EU presidency, with the European Commission providing funding.
The first phase concluded in May when the team released its finding that forest decline could be costing about 7% of global GDP. The second phase will expand the scope to other natural systems.
Stern message
Key to understanding his conclusions is that as forests decline, nature stops providing services which it used to provide essentially for free.
So the human economy either has to provide them instead, perhaps through building reservoirs, building facilities to sequester carbon dioxide, or farming foods that were once naturally available.
Or we have to do without them; either way, there is a financial cost.
The Teeb calculations show that the cost falls disproportionately on the poor, because a greater part of their livelihood depends directly on the forest, especially in tropical regions.
The greatest cost to western nations would initially come through losing a natural absorber of the most important greenhouse gas.
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And that isn't only on a monetary scale. The loss of forests, natural carbon sinks, biodiversity, our oceans, and the ecosystems that depend on them will lose us as a species far more than $$$$$$. We will lose our very essence and our reason for being on this planet. We will lose the very breath of our Earth. To me, while the global markets struggle to maintain a tangible asset, let us not forget that our Earth and its sustainability is our most precious asset in more ways than just the tangible. And if we as a world community do not get truly serious about dealing with this loss within the next year it will not matter what happens on a global market. The loss to us otherwise will be even more catastrophic.The global economy is losing more money from the disappearance of forests than through the current banking crisis, according to an... more
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Climate experts are warning that if carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions aren't reduced, most of B.C's glaciers will be melted within 150 years.
"If the current projections for the increasing levels of CO2 are accurate then most of the glaciers in B.C. and Alberta will be gone in 150 years," said Brian Menounos, an associate professor of geography at University of Northern B.C.
Menounos is part of a team of scientists carrying out a $2.1 million study on behalf of the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences to see what effects global warming is having on glaciers in the Pacific Northwest. The study is expected to be completed in 2010.
"Of course we don't know what will happen in the next 150 years and what humans are going to do about CO2 emissions, but if current trends are maintained the only ice fields left will be some remnants in the St. Elias Mountains," he said.
The St. Elias Mountain range straddles Alaska, Yukon and the far northern part of B.C.
Menounos said scientists are monitoring glaciers to determine what's being accumulated in the winter when it snows against what melts in the summer heat.
"We know CO2 emissions will change both the total snowfall and summer temperatures. The majority of climate scientists claim that human activity has a role in climate change," he said.
One of the most important aspects of the study is to determine what will happen if the glaciers continue melting and the effects this will have on available water resources.
"Land managers need to know how much of that water resource is still there. In 2014 the water treaty between the U.S. and Canada will have to be negotiated again and both parties will have to come to the table and say 'based on this information we're going to have to agree on how the water is allocated.'
"Canada can't say we're going to take it all because a lot of it flows into Washington state," he said.
Menounos said the 1990s were "not good years for glaciers" and there was significant melting but this decade temperatures have been cooler on average, he said.
"But we know the melting of the large ice masses in the coastal mountains is contributing substantially to the rise in sea levels," he said.
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Gone in 150 years, with people feeling the effects of it until that time especially regarding the availability of water. That is unless the people of the world wake up this next year. We are not taking this seriously enough on a global scale even with all of the evidence coming forward. I just do not understand why the most crucial and important crises of our world are constantly being tucked away as if they can be gotten to another day. In the grand scheme of this world 150 years is not that long.Climate experts are warning that if carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions aren't reduced, most of B.C's glaciers will be melted... more
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Can rubber ducks help track a melting glacier?
By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - To help figure out what's happening inside the fastest-moving Greenland glacier, a U.S. rocket scientist sent 90 rubber ducks into the ice, hoping someone finds them if they emerge in Baffin Bay.
The common yellow plastic bath toys are one part of a sophisticated experiment to determine why glaciers speed up in the summer in their march to the sea, said Alberto Behar of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California.
The Jakobshavn Glacier is very likely the source of the iceberg that sank the Titanic in 1912 and researchers focus on it because it discharges nearly 7 percent of all the ice coming off Greenland. As the planet warms, its melting ice sheet could make oceans rise this century.
"It's a beautiful place to visit. You can watch these icebergs continuously march across and fall into the ocean," Behar said.
What you can't see is how melting water moves through the ice.
"Right now it's not understood what causes the glaciers themselves to surge in the summer," Behar said. One theory is that the summer sun melts ice on the top glacial surface, creating pools that flow into tubular holes in the glacier called moulins.
The moulins can carry some water all the way to the underside of the glacier, where it acts as a lubricant to speed the movement of ice toward the coast. But because it cannot be seen, no one really knows what occurs.
That's where the rubber ducks come in, along with a probe about the size of a football loaded with a GPS transmitter and instruments that can tell much about the glacier's innards. Continued...Can rubber ducks help track a melting glacier?
By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - To... more
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When are we going to hear the roar of the American people demanding Washington Dc wake the hell up and stop touting some bogus 80% by 2050 emissions reduction line when it is obvious that will be too late? However, the price of gas is supposedly going down now so conveniently before 'election' day and with the current global financial crisis so conveniently placed where it is I suppose dealing with climate change will now be an afterthought to governments that really weren't going to do much about it anyway.
To me this all seems surreal. It is like slowing down to watch a car wreck and then speeding up once you get by to continue on your way because the thrill of seeing it is gone because you really didn't care if anyone was hurt, it was just exciting to look at. 'Oh my, the Greenland ice caps are melting... how terrible... look at that video... oh boy, something to talk about today...then... nothing to see here, move on... let's look at pictures of Jamie Lynn Spears breastfeeding instead.' The Earth is speaking to us, crying out to us. The signs are everywhere. And we continue driving down the road turning our radios up so as not to be bothered, thinking someone will take care of that; or, it won't melt enough in my lifetime to make any difference; or, it is all natural or the will of God so why fight it. I just do not know what else can be said anymore.
We need to be scaling more chimneys and unfurling more banners, and standing around more fossil fuel plants, and shouting even louder, and writing relentlessly to newspapers and media and badgering representatives in Dc and elsewhere, and we need to be telling ALL presidential candidates that "clean coal' is not the answer. We need to pull over and get out of the car and do something besides gawking at the tragedy unfolding before our eyes.
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From the article:
Flying low over the vast, white expanse of Greenland's Ilulissat glacier, one of the biggest and most active in the world, the effects of global warming in the Arctic are painfully visible as the ice melts at an alarming rate.
The helicopter lands on a granite cliff overlooking the Ilulissat ice fjord, or Kangia in Greenlandic, offering a magnificent, panoramic view of elaborate ice formations as they float towards the sea at a rate of two meters (yards) an hour, spilling massive icebergs into the open water.
Off in the distance, huge boulders of ice break off of the imposing Ilulissat glacier, more commonly known by its Greenlandic name Sermeq Kujalleq, creating a thunderous roar as the glacier recedes in one of the planet's most striking examples of global warming.
"The ice in some places on the coast is now melting four times faster than before," says Abbas Khan, a Dane who studies the movements of Greenland's glaciers at the Danish Space Centre.
The Ilulissat glacier and icefjord have been on UNESCO's world heritage list since 2004 and is the most visited site in Greenland, its ice and pools of emerald-blue water admired by tourists and studied by scientists and politicians around the world.
The glacier is the most active in the northern hemisphere, producing 10 percent of Greenland's icebergs, or some 20 million tonnes of ice per day.
But the glacier is in bad shape, experts warn.
Recent estimates by US scientists who study NASA's satellite images daily show that it is rapidly disintegrating.
It has shrunk more than 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) in the past five years, and is now smaller than it has ever been in the 150 years of observation and topographical data.
According to professor Jason Box and his team from the department of geography at Ohio State University, the Ilulissat glacier may not have been this small in 6,000 years.
more at the link
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Photo credit:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/danielheaf/1343411263/When are we going to hear the roar of the American people demanding Washington Dc wake the hell up and stop touting some bogus 80%... more
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Global warming is already leading to widespread disruptions of the Earth's natural systems, according to a study published in the journal Nature and conducted by some of the climate scientists who were involved in the influential 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
"[This] is the first [study] to formally link observed global changes in physical and biological systems to human-induced climate change, predominantly from increasing greenhouse gases," said study reviewers Francis Zwiers of Environment Canada and Gabriele Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh, Scotland.
The scientists catalogued more than 29,500 reports of changes to the Earth's natural systems. Some of these changes were physical, such as the melting of Patagonia's ice fields of Arctic permafrost, or the earlier break-up of Mongolian river ice and unprecedented coastal erosion. Others were behavioral, such as the earlier arrival of migratory birds to Australia, and others dealt with changes in populations, such as the decline of Antarctic krill stocks and overall productivity of Lake Tanganyika. Even genetic changes, such as those in North America's pitcher plant mosquitoes, were included.
The researchers found that more than 90 percent of the documented changes were to be expected from a scenario of rising regional temperatures. Global warming, rather than other human causes such as deforestation or pollution, seemed to be the major force behind the changes.
more at the link.
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This must now become more than just a political wedge issue. This must be the end of governments and groups placating flatearthers and special interests who are using their $$$$$ to control the conversation. This must be the end of governments and organizations like the World Bank using this crisis as an impetus to benefit themselves and to foment war. They are all leading us over the cliff. Global warming/climate change is doing damage to the many ecosystems that support the life of humans and other species.
There are currently six degrees of climate change that represent the effects this planet will suffer from due to global warming/climate change. Currently, we are at the third degree... we are already HALFWAY THERE. As the last quote in this article states, we have to get our act together. And it is not overly dramatic to state that we are running out of time regarding the future sustainability of this planet. This is not something that is just occurring through natural means nor has it been ordained by God. This is not just some fluke of nature that will reverse itself. This is not a myth or an illusion. This is real, it is happening, and we are contributing to it not only by our behavior but by our retiscence in taking the action necessary to mitigate it.
How many 'meetings' are world leaders going to have before they realize that they have run out the clock? How many political candidates will continue to spew the same 80% by 2050 line? I recently wrote to my Senator about the need for 100% renewable energy in 10 years... know the response I got? The same form letter with that same 80% by 2050 line! Where is the political will? Where is the urgency? And people dare to criticize those who scale coal plants to unfurl a dire warning as to the truth of the state of the only planet that can sustain us to wake people up?
Just what is it going to take?Global warming is already leading to widespread disruptions of the Earth's natural systems, according to a study published in... more
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With over a million people and 250,000 homes damaged due to the recent floods this prediction does not bode well for India, especially the poor of India. And without governments and social mores changing to accomodate a moral standing regarding this crisis, many will die and that is not an exaggeration. In the recent flooding, "untouchables" were either the last to be rescued or were not rescued at all. So how will that play out in the event of other major environmental climate change catastrophes? Those deemed unworthy of aid will simply be left to die?
From the article:
With over 2.7 million people affected by the floods caused by the change of course of the Kosi river in Bihar, researchers have now warned of more floods in northern India in coming years following changing stream flow patterns in the Himalayan rivers. The researchers from Pune University and College of Military Engineering, Pune, found an increase in the number of ‘high-magnitude flood’ events in four rivers - Chenab, Ravi, Satluj and Beas in northwestern Himalayas in the last four decades.
The researchers analysed the discharge of glacial melt into these rivers and found changing water flow patterns in the river due to global warming.
“The high-magnitude events in Himalayan rivers are generally in monsoons; hence they may lead to floods in plains too,” researcher M.R. Bhutiyani, professor at the College of Military Engineering, told IANS.
Bhutiyani said a “high magnitude flood event” is defined as an event when river flow at a particular point exceeds its average value.
“The data analysis shows that there was a significant number of high magnitude flood events in the rivers in the last four decades and the frequency of such events has been increasing,” he said.
The researchers found that due to global warming smaller glaciers in the Himalayas have receded at a relatively faster rate than the larger ones. This may ultimately lead to their disappearance in the near future.
“It is the glacier contribution which is going to be impacted because of global warming. There will be variations in response to the monsoon rainfall. Glaciers, which acted as natural regulators of discharge, will no longer play an important role in the hydrological regime of such basins,” Bhutiyani said.
The researchers found a significant increase in the glacial discharge in the Chenab and Satluj rivers, attributing this to a larger number of glaciers in the basin being on the retreat.
With over a million people and 250,000 homes damaged due to the recent floods this prediction does not bode well for India,... more
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Kivalina's precarious situation has been worsened by a changing climate. Historically, the Chukchi Sea had turned solid by early winter, with slush forming along the shore in the fall, creating a kind of bumper cushion that protected the island from autumn storms. Over the past half century, however, the average annual temperature here has risen more than three degrees Fahrenheit, to 23.5, with a wintertime increase of almost seven. Last year it rained in January for the first time in memory, and in summer 2007 the thermometer approached 80 degrees. As a result, sea ice forms later in the year, while storms occur earlier: a literal double whammy.
Kivalinans know they have to move. In the 1990s, even before global warming was widely recognized, they targeted a pair of potential relocation sites to the east and south, but the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers found geological problems with both. Now the village is fast running out of time. "Before, leaving was optional," Swan says. "Now it's an emergency situation."
After another storm forced an evacuation of the island in the fall of 2007, you might say that Kivalina reached the end of its rope. Which is why, on February 26, 2008, this community of 400 Native Americans filed suit in federal court against 24 oil, electricity, and coal companies, including ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, British Petroleum, Chevron, and Shell. Demanding up to $400 million in damages-the estimated cost of moving the village out of reach of the rising sea-the lawsuit accuses the companies of contributing to global warming and creating a public nuisance that has harmed property in the town.
It's an audacious move-after all, even snowmobile-using Kivalinans bear some responsibility for climate change. But the lawsuit goes further, charging that some of the corporations "conspired to create a false scientific debate about global warming in order to deceive the public."
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Hmm, and I wonder, just what is the Governor of Alaska doing about this? Oh yes, I forgot, she is too much into being tutored to play the Washington political game now to care about her own state. And she thinks climate change is not manmade? And she thinks thst Alaska should actually pump out more oil in order to continue to precipitate the crisis? I for one am pleased that Kivalina is suing oil companies for their part in climate change because they have been part of an all out deceptive PR campaign as tobacco companies were to make people believe climate change is not as serious as it really is in order to protect their profits. So, Governor Palin claims to be tough on oil companies? Sorry, that claim doesn't fly when you look at the Kivalinas of this world. And it is said that she stood up to them as far as taxing them? Then where did all that money go since the native people of Kivalina in her state don't even have enough money to move their village due to the effects of climate change? Kivalina is indeed the canary in the coal mine for climate change. Too bad their leader is too busy being a media star to care. Kivalina's precarious situation has been worsened by a changing climate. Historically, the Chukchi Sea had turned solid by... more
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Excerpts...
KEVIN Rudd's global warming guru has finally - and reluctantly - exposed the con. Ignore everything the Government has told you.
The truth, conceded Professor Ross Garnaut last week, is that it really is cheaper for Australians to do nothing about global warming.
And, no, it's not immoral to figure there's no point spending big money to "stop" this warming when it won't make a blind bit of difference.
No wonder the Rudd Government refuses to comment on Garnaut's latest report, released on Friday. Much of the argument for its grand plan to make us slash emissions from 2010 has just been destroyed.
I guess it's just hoping no journalists, most of whom are warming believers, will care to notice what Garnaut has just admitted through gritted teeth. As far as I can tell, only the Daily Telegraph's Piers Akerman has drawn the unmistakable conclusions.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,24298533-5006922,00.html
or http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24304472-5001030,00.html ...
Excerpt:
"NO SINGLE issue better illustrates the Rudd Government's gross incompetence than its blindly ideological approach to the question of climate change.
Fortunately, and perhaps accidentally, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's own hand-picked climate change guru, Professor Ross Garnaut, has now driven a truck through its principal argument.
In the 10 months since Rudd, Treasurer Wayne Swan, Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and Environment Minister Peter Garrett have held office, the Government has constantly decried and denigrated as ``irresponsible climate-change deniers'' all who question their views .
The snide use of the word "denier'' to link sceptics with those who deny the actuality of the Holocaust is so obvious it hardly deserves mention.
But its repeated usage is indicative of the gutter nature of the massive propaganda campaign waged by Rudd and his colleagues as they attempt to capitalise on their symbolic signing of the politically correct Kyoto Protocol.
Fixated with the flawed reports prepared by the totally partisan Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and falsely claiming there is a "consensus'' among climate scientists that human activity is responsible for global warming, Rudd has pushed a warped agenda based on extraordinarily dubious modelling.
And such an agenda can, in all reality, have no effect on the planet, let alone the behaviour of other nations.
For the whole of their period in office, federal Labor's mantra has been simple: the cost of doing nothing about climate change will be greater than the cost of doing something.
Now, however, former foreign affairs mentor Professor Garnaut has revealed that mantra is false."
Darn.... Whom CAN you believe any more???????????
Excerpts...
KEVIN Rudd's global warming guru has finally - and reluctantly - exposed the con. Ignore everything the... more
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Could our coastlines disappear underwater much sooner than we think? The controversial view that sea levels could rise at a rate of more than 1 metre per century has found support from a new study of a long-melted ice sheet.
In reconstructing the events at the end of the last ice age, Anders Carlson of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and colleagues found that the Laurentide ice sheet, which covered most of North America between 95,000 and 7000 years ago, rapidly disintegrated.
The researchers began by studying beryllium isotopes in rocks to determine how the outer edges of the two final chunks of the Laurentide ice sheet retreated. They found that the ice retreated rapidly between 9000 and 8500 years ago, stabilised, and then made its final rapid retreat between 7600 and 6800 years ago.
The team calculated the volume of water that would have been released in each of these melting stages, and the rate at which it must have raised sea levels. They concluded that levels would have climbed 1.3 metres per century in the earlier period, and 0.7 metres per century in the final melt.
Carlson then used a sophisticated computer model – one that is used to forecast future climate change – to check the results. The model predicted an average sea level rise of 1.3 metres per century.
Different times
"The forces that led to the demise of the Laurentide ice sheet in a very rapid way are comparable to the forces the same computer models predict we will experience this century if we do not rapidly curb greenhouse gas emissions," says Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who collaborated with Carlson on the study.
For Mark Siddall of the University of Bristol, UK, and Michael Kaplan of the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory in New York, however, there remain many differences between what happened nearly 10,000 years ago and the climate change Earth is currently experiencing.
"To what extent this dynamic response of the Laurentide ice sheet to past temperature change can be considered analogous to present and future reduction of the Greenland ice sheet remains unresolved," they say in an associated commentary. "But their work suggests that future reductions of the Greenland ice sheet on the order of one metre per century are not out of the question."
If Carlson's estimates are correct, they show that 2007 predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – a sea-level rise of between 18 centimetres and 59 cm by 2100 – are very conservative, as the IPCC acknowledged at the time.
Millions at risk
Sea-level rises of at least a metre per century were also predicted by the head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, James Hansen. Hansen believes that our climate will soon hit tipping points – points of no return – beyond which the ice sheets will rapidly disintegrate.
Carlson says his team's findings are proof that large ice sheets can disintegrate very rapidly. What's more, he says the forces that caused the Laurentide ice sheet to disintegrate are equivalent to the ones that threaten the Greenland ice sheet today.
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Will the US and other industrialized nations then step up to the plate in Copenhagen next year? Will the US Congress do so as well? The way I feel today I would say it would have to take Greenland falling into the ocean before that happens. How irresponsible of them to not be making this the priority issue it must be.Could our coastlines disappear underwater much sooner than we think? The controversial view that sea levels could rise at a rate... more
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Scientists are not paying enough attention to glacial melting in the Andes, the Himalayas and peaks in other developing countries, a United Nations-backed report found on Monday.
Experts from the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) said while there has been excellent monitoring of glacial trends in Europe and North America, ice fields in Central Asia and the tropics have been largely overlooked.
This is a major concern given that shrinking and thinning glaciers -- a phenomenon linked to climate change -- could put freshwater supplies at risk for hundreds of millions of people, authors Peter Gilruth and Wilfried Haeberli said.
"Data gaps exist in some vulnerable parts of the globe undermining the ability to provide precise early warning for countries and populations at risk," they concluded.
Their report, released at a meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a U.N. scientific body, called for more investment in high-tech monitoring tools for Central Asia, South America, East Africa and in Papua New Guinea.
The IPCC has said global warming, stoked by the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, will trigger more droughts, floods, heatwaves, and severe storms, and cause sea levels to rise as glaciers and polar ice caps melt.
According to the UNEP and WGMS study, the average melting rate of mountain glaciers has doubled since the turn of the millennium, with record losses seen in 2006 at several sites.
If governments fail to agree to deep emissions cuts when they negotiate a successor deal to the Kyoto Protocol next year in Copenhagen, the authors said it was possible that glaciers may disappear completely from many mountain ranges this century.
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It isn't surprising the poorer countries are not being monitored regarding this. It seems even issues of class have intruded on this moral issue as well. Scientists are not paying enough attention to glacial melting in the Andes, the Himalayas and peaks in other developing countries,... more
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The thawing of permafrost in northern latitudes, which greatly increases microbial decomposition of carbon compounds in soil, will dominate other effects of warming in the region and could become a major force promoting the release of carbon dioxide and thus further warming, according to a new assessment in the Sept. issue of BioScience.
The study, by an international team of researchers, more than doubles previous estimates of the amount of carbon stored in the permafrost: the new figure is equivalent to twice the total amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The authors conclude that releases of the gas from melting permafrost could amount to roughly half those resulting from global land-use change during this century.
Researchers refine earlier assessments by considering complex processes that mix soil from different depths during melting and freezing of permafrost, which occur to some degree every year.
They judge that over millennia, soil processes have buried and frozen over a trillion metric tons of organic compounds in the world's vast permafrost regions.
The relatively rapid warming now under way is bringing the organic material back into the ecosystem, in part by turning over soil, said the researchers.
The thawing of permafrost in northern latitudes, which greatly increases microbial decomposition of carbon compounds in soil, will... more
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The bears were spotted in open ocean off the northwest coast of Alaska, miles from their normal hunting area by US government oil survey scientists flying over the Chukchi sea.
Although land was initially only 60 miles away from the bears' former home, they were driven north by their homing instinct towards the edge of the Arctic ice shelf.
Polar bears are renowned as strong swimmers but the 'lost' bears now face an epic 400-mile swim back to shore.
According to WWF, the World Wide Fund for Nature, one group of bears is known to have swum 100 miles but they arrived exhausted and several drowned on the way.
In May, the US Department of the Interior listed polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because the Arctic ice they hunt on is melting so quickly.
"The Arctic is a vast ocean and to find nine bears swimming in one area is extremely worrying because it means that dozens more are probably in the same predicament," said Margaret Williams, Director of WWF's Alaska office.
Dr Williams said animal groups were considering asking the US government to send a Coast Guard ship, like a modern Noah's ark, to rescue some of the bears.
Arctic scientists said they feared the annual ice-melt had passed its 'tipping point' where not enough freezes each winter to make up for what melted the previous summer.
As less ice freezes, the winter sea remains warmer, and becomes hotter the following summer causing even more ice to melt. Senior scientist Dr Mark Serreze said: "The summer melting used to slow down by the beginning of September.
"We thought it was slowing this year, but it's suddenly sped up instead.'
The Chukchi Sea off Alaska's northwest coast is home to one of two populations of Alaska polar bears. Professor Richard Steiner, of the University of Alaska's Marine Advisory Programme, said: 'The bottom line here is that polar bears need sea ice, sea ice is decaying, and the bears are in very serious trouble.'
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Yet, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska does not believe man is contributing to global warming. She thinks the excelerated and unprecedented melting we are seeing worldwide is a "natural" variance. Yet, she sites no evidence for this. She is simply another person whose family makes money off of oil, so of course, what would she think even with the evidence staring her in the face. How totally ignorant and irresponsible on her part. Perhaps Sarah Palin like all those who believe they shouldn't have to be responsible for others on this planet should actually look beyond their own selfish needs and greed to actually reading a scientific report. Or does she like most flatearthers believe that science is a myth as well? She may be Vice Presidential material to John McCain (well actually, I don't really think she is to him, she was just the convenient choice based on circumstances) but she is certainly not qualified by putting her own needs before those of her state and this planet. There is absolutely no way this could just be a "natural" variance, Ms. Palin and it has been proven. I think you need to do a bit of research on this topic rather than parrotting the political ideology of those who only see the scales tipped with gold bars, because you like them are accomplices in the slow suicide of the human species and those other species powerless to speak out for themselves. Shame on you.The bears were spotted in open ocean off the northwest coast of Alaska, miles from their normal hunting area by US government oil... more
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Climate change could release unexpectedly huge stores of carbon dioxide from Arctic soils, which would in turn fuel a vicious circle of global warming, a new study warned Sunday.
And according to one commentary on the research, current models of climate change have not taken this extra source of greenhouse gas into account.
Scientists have long known that organic carbon trapped inside a blanket of frozen permafrost covering one fifth of the world's land mass would, if thawed, release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
But until now they simply did not have a good idea of how much carbon is actually locked inside this Arctic freezer.
To find out, a team of American researchers led by Chien-Lu Ping of the University of Alaska Fairbanks examined a wide range of landscapes across North America.
They took soil samples from 117 sites, each to a depth of at least one metre, in order to provide a full assessment of the region's so-called "carbon pool."
Previous estimates of the Arctic carbon pool relied heavily on a relative handful of measurements conducted outside of the Arctic, and only to a depth of 40 centimetres (15.5 inches).
The study, published in the British journal Nature Geoscience, found that the stock of organic carbon "is considerably higher than previously thought" -- 60 percent more than the previously estimated.
This is roughly equivalent of one sixth of the entire carbon content in the atmosphere.
And that is just for North America. The size and mix of landscapes in the northern reaches of Europe and Russia are about the same, and probably contain a comparable amount of carbon-dioxide producing matter currently held in check only by the cold, the study said.
And the danger of a thaw is real, note climate scientists.
photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/71485028@N00/206612972/
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This has not been taken into account in climate models. Ten years now seems like a long time to wait to do something about climate change. I say, if we count on politicians to see the moral urgency of this in time to act accordingly, we're screwed. Time for them to have their feet held to the fire.Climate change could release unexpectedly huge stores of carbon dioxide from Arctic soils, which would in turn fuel a vicious... more
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New satellite images reveal that a massive ice chunk recently broken away from one of Greenland's glaciers, which researchers say will continue to disintegrate within the next year.
Scientists at Ohio State University monitoring daily NASA satellite images of Greenland's glaciers discovered that an 11-square-mile (29-square-kilometer) piece of the Petermann Glacier broke away between July 10 and 24. The chunk was about half the size of Manhattan.New satellite images reveal that a massive ice chunk recently broken away from one of Greenland's glaciers, which researchers... more
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